Sawt Falasteen - Mexico's Sheinbaum claims drop in homicides, experts dubious

Since Sheinbaum took over from party colleague Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last October, official data shows murders in the cartel violence-riddled country dropping by a quarter to May.

Partly driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb drug trafficking and illegal north-bound migration, Sheinbaum has boosted intelligence and investigative capacity.

She has deployed boots on the ground to flush out trouble makers -- a U-turn from her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" approach to reducing poverty and other causes of violent crime while avoiding armed confrontations with criminal gangs.

"The strategy is working," Sheinbaum told journalists last week.

- How did she do it? -

Sheinbaum in February deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the northern border to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration. Thousands more troops were sent to violent states such as Sinaloa and Guanajuato to boost security.

She has created new departments in the security secretariat, including a "National Intelligence System" tasked with detecting criminal networks and anticipating and preventing their misdeeds, as well as a body to streamline and coordinate police intelligence and investigations.

"President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy refocused resources on combating organized crime and... this may be having an effect on the trend in intentional homicides," said Armando Vargas, coordinator of the security program at the Mexico Evalua think tank.

David Mora of the Crisis Group research center pointed to a renewed focus on identifying violence hotspots and deploying forces there.

Guanajuato state in central Mexico was a "perfect example," said Mora: with homicides there dropping by half under the new approach.

- Reliable stats?-

Data from the security secretariat show there were 2,607 "intentional homicides" in Mexico last September -- Lopez Obrador's final month in office -- and 1,998 last month.

The downward trend was not consistent, with jumps in the numbers some months, but calculated on an average, the government said it represented a 25.8 percent drop.

Experts say rather than measuring the decrease from last September -- a particularly violent month -- one should compare year-on-year periods.

Comparing homicide numbers for October 2024 to May 2025 with the same eight-month period a year earlier, there is also sees a declining trend. But it is much smaller one, with a seven percent drop, said Mora.

"Reducing homicides by a quarter in six months would be unprecedented. And yet it is the narrative the government is promoting," he added.

Vargas said the numbers did not include people reported missing, possibly dead -- another "method by which organized crime eliminates individuals."

Killings whose motives are listed as "undetermined" are also left out of the tally.

"There are several states with particularly high levels of undetermined causes (for homicides). Mexico City, Michoacan, Veracruz, for example," said Mora.

Criminal violence has claimed more than 480,000 lives in Mexico since 2006. Some 120,000 people are officially missing, and mass graves are regularly unearthed.

- Can it be sustained? -

Mexico does not have a good track record in bringing wrongdoers to account: Some 90 percent of crimes are never punished.

"The only thing that stops murderers from committing more murders is ensuring that they are punished," said Mora.

According to Vargas, there are worrying signs in states like Chiapas and Tabasco, where conflict between drug gangs is escalating, and Sinaloa where even mass troop deployments have been unable to stop the violence of the cartel by the same name.

Over 1,000 people have been killed in Sinaloa since September.

- Is there reason to celebrate? -

Mexico still has by far one of the highest homicide rates in the world, comparable to those of countries at war.

In May, gunmen shot dead an aide and an advisor to Mayor Clara Brugada in a rush hour double homicide on a busy avenue in the capital Mexico City. In the last week, two female mayors were assassinated in the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For Mora, it would be "a monumental mistake" to celebrate too soon.

"The levels of homicidal violence remain alarming," he said.

Mexico recorded 30,048 homicides in 2024. Most were cartel-related crimes.

H.Jarrar--SF-PST