Sawt Falasteen - Rivals neck-and-neck ahead of Poland's 'clash of civilisations' vote

Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, in a runoff vote some analysts have described as a "clash of civilisations".

Latest opinion polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the margin of error.

A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland's government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president.

It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and an easing of Poland's near-total ban on abortion.

A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland's steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia.

Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the country of 38 million people, which has been one of Europe's best economic performers.

Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday.

"I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening," said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert.

Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff.

- Counting on turnout -

At one of his last campaign events, Trzaskowski called for full mobilisation among his supporters, recalling the record turnout of over 74 percent in the 2023 general election that brought the centrists to power.

"If participation is as high as in 2023... we will win these presidential elections," Trzaskowski said Friday in the northern town of Chojnice.

He said there would be "chaos" with Nawrocki as president.

Nawrocki for his part used his last campaign hours to leave flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.

"It was a genocide against the Polish people," he said, adding: "I will be the president of your future. The past and the future can be reunited."

Poland, a staunch Ukraine ally since Russia's invasion, wants Kyiv to admit responsibility for the Volyn massacres, in which around 100,000 Poles died between 1943 and 1945.

- Far-right voters -

The election's final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters to come out and vote and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki.

Far-right candidates fared better than expected in the first round of the election on May 18, getting more than 21 percent of the vote -- and leaving Nawrocki a larger pool of votes to draw upon.

Trzaskowski won that round by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki.

Materska-Sosnowska called the election "a real clash of civilisations", pointing to major policy differences between the candidates on issues including abortion or LGBTQ rights.

The job of Polish president is sometimes dismissed as a ceremonial post, but it comes with crucial veto power over legislation.

And that has often stymied Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council chief whose centrist Civic Coalition (KO) has clashed on multiple fronts with conservative President Andrzej Duda since it came to power in 2023.

The election campaign saw Nawrocki mired in a few scandals.

While arguing against a property tax, he claimed to own just one flat. Later it was revealed he had acquired a second one in a convoluted deal with an elderly man.

A bombshell news report also alleged he had arranged prostitutes for guests while working as a hotel security guard.

Nawrocki called the accusations "a bunch of lies" and said he would sue the news site that published the report.

L.Hussein--SF-PST