Sawt Falasteen - Great hex-pectations: shamans divided on South Korea's political destiny

South Koreans go to the polls on Tuesday to choose their next president, a snap vote triggered by ex-leader Yoon Suk Yeol's disastrous declaration of martial law in December.

And for Yang, a traditional Korean "mudang", it's clear that liberal frontrunner Lee Jae-myung will emerge victorious -- a prediction that chimes with all major opinion polls that put Lee well ahead in the presidential race.

The latest Gallup survey show 49 percent of respondents viewing Lee as the best candidate, while Kim Moon-soo, from the conservative People Power Party (PPP) was trailing on 35 percent.

"From the beginning, I've seen Lee Jae-myung becoming president," Yang told AFP at her office in the western port city of Incheon.

"I saw a presidential aura," she explained, adding that she faced "criticism and even threats" for her prediction.

"But I can't lie about what I see."

Shamanism has shaped culture and belief on the Korean peninsula for centuries.

South Koreans still regularly turn to them for advice on everything from their love lives to important business decisions and cities, and the registrar of the country's largest shamanic organisation lists 300,000 practising in the country.

But the folk religion has also come under the spotlight for all the wrong reasons -- two presidential impeachments have been linked to undue influence allegedly wielded by shamans.

Former President Park Geun-hye was removed from office in 2017 in an influence-peddling scandal involving claims of, among other things, participation in shamanistic rituals.

Ousted ex-leader Yoon and his first lady Kim Keon Hee have also been accused of turning to sketchy shamans when making decisions -- including, it is alleged, the fateful martial declaration.

- 'Intense emotions' -

Claims like that provoke an "intense emotional reaction" in South Korean society -- in part because the country's history is full of leaders led astray by unscrupulous spiritual advisors, Lee Won-jae, a sociologist at South Korea's KAIST university, told AFP.

"When it comes to dramatising politics, there's nothing quite as effective as invoking shamanistic themes," he said.

"Mudang" or shaman act as intermediaries between the world of spirits and everyday life.

Their elaborate "gut" ceremonies can be hours-long affairs, with cacophonic music, singing and prayers used to ward off evil spirits or hope for a good harvest.

Hit thrillers like last year's "Exhuma" -- which features a group of shamans fighting an ancient evil spirit -- have piqued public interest.

And some shamans now even turn to social media to ply their craft, livestreaming on YouTube and offering advice over video calls.

Shaman Lee Dong-hyeon, who goes by Ohbangdoryeong -- "guardian of the five directions" -- says he was approached by local politicians after predicting Yoon's untimely fall three years ago.

"To become a truly great person, you must learn to carry burdens," he told AFP.

Yoon "lacks that destiny", he said.

And "despite his age, he lacks judgement", he said.

- 'Truth can be uncomfortable' -

Ohbangdoryeong engages in "sword rituals" -- licking the sharp blade of a knife in a bid to receive messages from deities.

He isn't so sure that frontrunner Lee will help end South Korea's political turmoil.

"Things will stabilise for two years, but then there will be bloodshed -- political purges," he darkly predicted.

Fellow shaman Hong Myeong-hui agreed that turbulent times could be ahead.

She said conservative contender Kim Moon-soo has a "quiet fire" in him.

But liberal Lee's "energy is fast and consuming, like a wildfire in spring", she said.

"His term will be stormy," Hong said.

"Prophecy isn't for pleasing people -- it's for truth. And truth can be uncomfortable."

No matter if the predictions ring true, what is clear that the new president will have to helm South Korea through a period of economic turbulence, as the trade-dependent nation will be facing steep tariffs from the United States while struggling with sluggish demand at home.

V.Said--SF-PST