Sawt Falasteen - 'Tough' Singapore election expected for non-Lee leader

This will be the first electoral battle for the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) under Wong since he succeeded Lee Hsien Loong, the son of founding premier Lee Kuan Yew, last year after decades of leadership by the Lees.

Parliament was dissolved Tuesday, clearing the way for the vote.

Singapore has long been dominated by the PAP, which is expected to remain in power, but opposition gains are closely watched as a referendum on the government's popularity.

And the upcoming elections come at a precarious time.

The global trading system that supported tiny, trade-reliant Singapore's rapid ascent to prosperity is under severe strain since US President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Singapore, one of the world's biggest transhipment hubs, finds itself exposed after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries, disrupting global supply chains and sparking fears of a full-blown trade war with China.

On Monday, Singapore's trade ministry downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2025 to between zero and 2.0 percent from 1.0-3.0 percent.

In a stark warning to parliament last week, Premier Wong declared that the "era of rules-based globalisation and free trade is over".

"We risk being squeezed out, marginalised, and left behind," he said.

Wong, 52, is seeking a firm mandate to steer the country through choppy waters.

It will "strengthen his hand and that of his government in putting in place policies and measures to protect the economy and to negotiate with other countries", said Eugene Tan, associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University.

- 'Toughest battle' -

PAP is one of the world's longest-running political parties having been in power since 1959.

But the party's dominance is increasingly being challenged by a more vocal electorate, especially among younger voters who appear open to alternative political voices.

The upcoming elections "may well be the toughest electoral battle for the ruling party", said Mustafa Izzuddin, a political analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore, citing the "unpredictability of ground sentiments and the emergence of a better quality opposition".

Tan of SMU said "millennial and Gen-Z voters are much more receptive... to a credible opposition in parliament".

In 2020, the opposition Workers' Party (WP) made historic gains, winning 10 of the 93 seats at stake -- a significant jump from its previously held four seats.

It is hoping to build on that momentum and is expected to field candidates like Harvard-trained senior counsel Harpreet Singh, 59.

In an interview on the local podcast "Yah Lah BUT", Singh said Singapore could be a "much better and strong country with a more balanced politics".

"We need to have a reset where we treat our critics, people with different ideas, people from outside the system, with more respect and not suspicion."

- 'More political diversity' -

A total of 97 seats are up for grabs in this election -- four more than in 2020 -- following a redrawing of electoral boundaries that some opposition parties have criticised as gerrymandering.

The majority of the seats will come from a bloc voting system that opposition parties say favours the PAP.

"Depending on how the opposition performs, there is a possibility of an emergence of a one-and-a-half party system -- where the ruling party retains dominance but faces a more substantial check from a strengthened opposition," said Izzuddin.

But he added that fragmentation threatens the opposition votes as smaller parties compete for influence in overlapping areas.

It remains unclear how the economic uncertainty will shape voter behaviour.

While Izzuddin suggested the climate could trigger a "flight-to-safety" move that benefits incumbents, Tan pointed to the 2020 election held amid the global pandemic which saw the opposition gain ground.

Ultimately, the outcome lies on how much Singaporeans wish to have more alternative views in parliament, but still keep the PAP in power.

"The challenge is whether PM Wong can convince Singaporeans that the tariffs war is a significant threat, and that giving the ruling party a secure victory will ultimately benefit Singaporeans -- notwithstanding the desire for more political diversity," said Tan.

The opposition is banking on the growing sentiment, with WP rising star Singh saying that "the best governments are not the ones that have dominant control and are not challenged".

"The best governments are the ones that are pushed to be better," he said. "That's where Singapore needs to go."

O.Salim--SF-PST