Sawt Falasteen - It's still 'the economy, stupid,' says US political guru Carville

Now 79, the "Ragin' Cajun" -- nicknamed for his forthright opinions and humble Louisiana roots -- is no longer inside the Democratic war room, but his influence remains outsized.

Carville infuriated Democrats by loudly insisting for months that President Joe Biden was too old to run again -- until the party suddenly agreed with him, and Biden stepped aside.

Speaking to AFP, he said he believes Democratic candidate Kamala Harris can win the US presidency by again following his famous motto, and becoming "more aggressive" with attacks on Donald Trump's economic record.

"As usual, Trump is offering people snake oil and stuff that's never worked -- like tariffs, which is a really historically dumb idea," Carville said of the Republican presidential nominee.

"We don't have to be as good as Bill Clinton" in delivering that message, said Carville, referring to his silver-tongued former boss as "the greatest who ever lived."

But "you can't separate human life from economic life. We find that out more and more every day," said Carville.

Less than a month before the election, polls show the candidates essentially tied, but with voters trusting Trump slightly more on economic policies.

The current Democratic administration has been hamstrung by soaring inflation.

But price rises have recently cooled, and other economic indicators like stock markets are near all-time highs.

And experts, including the head of the International Monetary Fund, have warned that Trump's plans for fresh import tariffs risk pushing consumer prices up, hitting lower-income families hardest.

"Some people may think the economy could be better for them. They always do," said Carville.

But while "Trump says you have nothing to lose... I think we're certainly at a place where you have something to lose," he told AFP.

"Record numbers of Americans are working. Record numbers of Americans have some money in the stock market... we've got to talk about it in ways that are relevant to people."

- No fan of 'wokeness' -

Carville spoke to AFP ahead of the launch of documentary film "Carville: Winning Is Everything, Stupid," out in New York theaters Friday, with a wider release later this year.

The movie follows Carville's relentless, if eccentric, routine as a political operator.

Cameras follow as he dissects the latest polls on daily calls with close friends like George Stephanopoulos, takes in exercise by speed-walking the corridors of business hotels, and packs miniature shampoo bottles filled with bourbon for his frequent flights to speaking engagements.

It reflects on everything from his childhood in a backwater Louisiana town, and his unlikely marriage to Republican strategist Mary Matalin, to his attacks on the more recent turn toward social justice "wokeness" by the Democratic Party.

Carville was heavily criticized for an interview in March in which he said the party had become "too feminine," and dominated by values like "don't drink beer. Don't watch football. Don't eat hamburgers... Everything you're doing is destroying the planet."

But Carville believes there has been a quiet but necessary scaling-back of "identity politics" in his party.

"No one talks like that anymore... it didn't work," he said.

Indeed, Harris this week drank a beer on late-night TV with Stephen Colbert, and has spoken repeatedly of being a gun owner.

Race- and gender-centered identity politics "was nice people that had an idea that sounded good at the wine and cheese faculty party, and then when you took it on the road, it flopped," says Carville.

"It needs to be discarded and kind of forgotten about for the time being."

- 'Insurgent' -

If the Democrats do win next month, Carville's stubborn, "insurgent" campaign against Biden's candidacy will have played an enormous part in it, said the film's director.

Carville is "capable of seeing around corners, which is a skill he's been credited with for many years," said Matt Tyrnauer.

"I don't think he ever put it into better use than he did in this campaign."

But despite his legendary status among political strategists, Carville insists he is "not very good at predicting elections."

"I don't ever think about who's going to win," he said. "Because every minute of thinking about who's going to win, I'm not thinking about how we can win."

J.AbuShaban--SF-PST