Sawt Falasteen - 'No oil, no money': Orban brings Ukraine standoff to Brussels

Moscow's closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist Hungarian leader has long resisted helping Kyiv to repel Russia's invasion, stalling EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions.

This time around, Orban is holding up a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) loan as leverage in a feud over damage to a pipeline running through Ukraine -- which has choked the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

As the Hungarian prime minister leans into anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of close-fought national elections on April 12 -- he appears intent on playing hardball.

"No oil, no money," he warned this week. "If President Zelensky wants to get his money from Brussels, then the Druzhba pipeline must be reopened."

The weeks-long spat has seen landlocked Hungary and Slovakia both accuse Ukraine of stalling on pipeline repairs -- while Zelensky has called it "blackmail" to link the issue to support for its war effort.

The European Commission moved this week to unblock the situation by sending a team to help restore oil transit, but Budapest dismissed the initiative as "theatre" and refused to budge.

Cue a looming showdown in Brussels -- and a tricky balancing act for Orban's EU counterparts.

- 'No Plan B' -

It's a well worn routine in Brussels, where Orban has held up countless decisions on Ukraine, and solutions have ultimately been found -- in one famous case having him leave the room while the bloc approved the start of membership talks with Kyiv.

But the frustration is palpable that Orban should renege on a loan he personally greenlit at a previous summit in December.

"Everybody wants this to be resolved," summed up an EU diplomat, saying fellow capitals were "more or less fed up" with the Hungarian leader's behaviour.

A German government official described a "certain momentum" on the pipeline issue -- seeing a chance of a breakthrough when leaders come face-to-face on Thursday.

But the message from other capitals was less optimistic.

"Will we make progress? I have strong doubts," said the EU diplomat, predicting Orban was "not going to budge" on a stance playing well with his voter base at home.

Complicating matters, leaders are wary of offering Orban -- who is trailing main rival Peter Magyar in the polls -- a chance to bolster his image as a maverick on the EU stage by publicly ganging up on him.

Failure to break the deadlock this week would most likely push the issue back until after the Hungarian vote, whatever its outcome.

Can Ukraine hold out till after Hungary's election? Unclear, say EU insiders.

Facing a budget shortfall four years into the war, Kyiv is estimated to need an influx of funds in early May -- implying a decision to unlock the EU loan by mid-April.

As Orban has dug in, there has been talk of alternative solutions to help keep Ukraine afloat -- but a second EU diplomat poured cold water on the notion.

"There's no bridging solutions or Plan B. There's only one plan, and that's Plan A," they said. "Orban should deliver on his promise."

L.AbuTayeh--SF-PST