Sawt Falasteen - Nepal's Balendra Shah holds unassailable poll lead for seat

Shah led with more than 55,500 votes, with Oli trailing on 15,409.

With over 80 percent of votes counted, AFP calculations show Shah has passed the winning threshold.

If the trends are confirmed by the vote count, 35-year-old Shah's victory over the veteran Marxist leader -- and his rise from city mayor to potential prime minister -- would mark one of the most dramatic results in recent Nepali politics.

Shah's centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) looked set to win by a landslide in the parliamentary polls, according to Election Commission trends, but with counting still far to go.

The high-stakes election on Thursday came six months after deadly protests toppled the government, with at least 77 people killed.

The September 2025 youth-led demonstrations, under a loose Gen Z banner, began over a brief social media ban but quickly tapped into broader grievances over corruption and a struggling economy.

According to early trends issued by the Election Commission, 35-year-old Shah's RSP was on track to win a majority in the 275-member House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament.

"Looking at the trend, the Rastriya Swatantra Party has taken the lead in many places and has won several seats," commission spokesperson Narayan Prasad Bhattarai told AFP.

"This is heading to a landslide victory -- this reflects the frustration that has been building up," said political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta.

"It is actually the people's revolt against the established political parties," he added.

"The people understand that the new do not really have strong agendas, but it is a punishment to the parties for their decades-long poor governance."

- 'A day will come' -

By Saturday morning, on the second day of counting, there were only 48 declared results -- RSP took 39, Nepali Congress won five, and the Marxist party of ousted prime minister Oli was trailing with two.

Former Maoist guerrilla commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal has one seat for his party.

But trends showed that Shah's RSP was also leading in 90 of the remaining 117 constituencies in the direct elections.

It had secured comfortably more than half of votes so far counted in the proportional representation vote, which determines a further 110 seats via party lists.

Bhattarai said results from direct elections would be ready by Monday, but it would take longer for the full results.

"According to our plan, it will take at least a week to count the proportional votes, after which the election will go through the official process," he added.

He said the count was "going smoothly" across the Himalayan nation, from snowbound mountain regions to the hot plains bordering India.

On Friday, Shah's party loyalists danced on the streets of Kathmandu in celebration, even though final results could take days.

RSP deputy chairman DP Aryal urged supporters to hold back on celebrations.

"Once we work, a day will come for us to celebrate," he said in a post on social media late Friday.

Shah has also taken a commanding lead in the seat he is contesting -- a head-to-head contest against 74-year-old ousted prime minister Oli, symbolising the clash between the old guard and a youth-driven call for change.

Better known as Balen, Shah leveraged his music fame and strong social media following to become Kathmandu's first independent mayor in 2022.

Nepali Congress, the largest party in the past coalition government, saw its new leader Gagan Thapa trailing in his own constituency.

"This is even a bigger upset than we expected -- it underscores the level of public disenchantment with the old parties for under-performance, as well as anger over the events of September," said Kunda Dixit, publisher of the weekly Nepali Times.

In Jhapa, soldiers with armoured trucks manned barbed wire barricades around the counting centre.

Yagya Prasad Adhikari, a 49-year-old businessman who travelled from Kathmandu for the vote, said he supported the calls for calm before full results were ready.

"We want someone who works, not someone who talks," he said. "We support Balen not celebrating."

Meanwhile, the burnt-out ruins of Oli's home in Jhapa -- torched during the unrest, like hundreds of other buildings, including parliament -- serve as a reminder of the deadly violence that occurred last year.

Dharmakala Gautam, 74, who watched the house burn, said she was tired of promises by politicians that never materialised.

"When the Maoists came to rule, we hoped for change -- but not much happened," she said. "I will keep some hope this time too."

O.Salim--SF-PST