Sawt Falasteen - Czech ex-PM set to win vote, putting Ukraine aid in doubt

A return to power by the ex-premier's could draw the Czech Republic -- an ally of Ukraine -- closer to EU mavericks Hungary and Slovakia which have refused military aid to Ukraine and oppose sanctions on Russia.

The election results were expected to be given later Saturday.

Babis, 71, is campaigning on pledges of welfare and halting military aid to Ukraine.

Many voters in turn blame the centre-right coalition government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala for ignoring domestic problems in their country of 11 million people while providing aid to Ukraine.

Babis's ANO ("Yes") party topped opinion polls with support exceeding 30 percent, ahead of Fiala's Together grouping with about 20 percent.

- 'Past or future' -

Describing himself as a "peacemonger" calling for a truce in Ukraine, Babis has vowed a "Czechs first" approach and "a better life for all Czechs" -- echoing US President Donald Trump.

When he was prime minister from 2017 to 2021, Babis was critical of some EU policies and is on good terms with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico, who have maintained ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine.

Bemoaning high energy prices, 60-year-old administrative worker and ANO voter Boris Lucansky told AFP in Prague he expected the next government to "make some changes that will benefit the people".

Retired university teacher Bedrich Ludvik said he was worried about the future Czech foreign policy if Babis wins.

"I'm a European, I'm a Westerner, I don't want to go east," he said. "I'm afraid that Babiš and his ilk will pull us eastward. I wouldn't like that."

Fiala, a 61-year-old former political science professor, said after casting his ballot that the vote was "deciding the direction of the Czech Republic... whether we head into the past or into the future".

- 'Pro-Russian propaganda' -

An analyst at Charles University, Josef Mlejnek, told AFP he did not expect "a fundamental change" if Babis wins.

"Babis is a pragmatic businessman and the only thing he cares about is being prime minister," he added.

Petr Just, an analyst at the Metropolitan University in Prague, told AFP a government led by Babis might use harsher rhetoric towards Brussels.

"We can remain members of the EU and NATO, just like Slovakia or Hungary, but we hear very harsh, sharp, critical rhetoric from these countries," he said.

"I would certainly not rule out that we will witness some rhetorical questioning of certain Western steps or actions that the West will take," added Just.

If Babis's party comes first but fails to win a majority, he could try to pursue a coalition with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), which is expected to gain about 12 percent, according to surveys.

Czech President Petr Pavel, who will tap the next premier under the constitution, said he would start talks with the elected party heads on Sunday.

US factchecking organisation American Sunlight Project reported on Friday that SPD has spent thousands of dollars on online advertisements without the necessary disclosures between 2019 and September 2025, more than 10 times the amount of Babis's and Fiala's parties on such ads.

A group of analysts said last week that Czech-language accounts on TikTok reaching millions of viewers "systematically spread pro-Russian propaganda and support anti-system parties through manipulated engagement".

The European Commission held an "emergency meeting" with TikTok on Thursday "in the context of the Czech elections", after which the social media platform removed "several bots", commission spokesman Thomas Regnier said.

C.Hamad--SF-PST